When you cannot beat the casinos, beat the players!

My scanning some of the post on the crapsforum.com reviles that DI’s are not beating the casinos. I have found that when true Advantage players really are winning, they don’t mind the critics or the nay-sayers at all.  In fact they say, “come play with me and I will show you how I do it”.  They laugh all the way to the bank.
Logic would say that if there “The Captain’ who beat craps in Atlantic City, then there would be far more like him in Las Vegas that has far more casinos and craps tables than AC ever had.
Yet, when no other person can be found who was as successful as ‘The Captain’ then logic would conclude that:
A: The Captain cheated, and all his perceived luck and skills was from cheating, or
B: The Captain never existed, and is a fictional creation used to inspire and tell “tall tales” with.
If dice influence/control actually existed to the point of giving a player the advantage, the casinos would take drastic steps to curtail that.  Blackjack is a great example of how the casinos quickly back off players who vary their bet, they changed the payouts and rules to make card counting less profitable, only allow 70% shoe penetration or less, and introduced continual shufflers.  Even still, they sweat this game and pit bosses are ever vigilant for the quick jump up in bet sizes by a player.
If the casinos felt threatened with craps, then we all be shooting from a horn (dice in a cup) or like in some European casinos the dealers toss the dice.  I have also seen prototypes of Dice Towers much like a pachinko machine where the dealers push a button and two dice will fall though a series of platforms and pins to tumble and spin down to the bottom where they come falling out.
Clearly, the casinos do not feel threatened at all with the current play of craps.  My assumption is that the diamond backwall is sufficient to ensure that the dice are randomized.
When players cannot beat the casinos, they will then turn on the fellow players for the source of their income.
It is my conclusion that a few of these ‘dice clubs’ out there that claim they can teach you to beat the game of craps with specialized dice rolling methods,   This appears to be nothing more than a ruse get hopeful and aspiring gamblers to pay for seminars, classes and personal training.  My own observation is that those who profit from such seminars are not profiting at all from playing craps and using the techniques they profess give the player the advantage.  Rather, it has been noted that some of these Dice seminar instructors can be found playing slots rather than craps.
I am not claiming that all Dice Clubs are bad.  Some actually help players develop a very sound and strategic betting technique and play styles that will greatly help them.  Dice clubs can also help a person develop and retain discipline of play as well as sharing of information as to play conditions, promotions and other opportunities that may invite lucrative ventures.
Now, tossing the dice in an eloquent way does show that you have put time and sincerity in to the game.  The respect gained may be more for your earnest commitment to the game, rather than any success with dice throwing. Furthermore, I personally like watching a skilled toss being deployed.  It is like watching ballet, and adds to further enjoyment of the game, and is far better than the clumsy sporadic tosses that go crashing though the chips on the table.
True Advantage Play with craps comes from:
 – Promotions that rebate your losses,
 – Match Play coupons,
 – Free chips,
 – Bonus Player club points
This combined with optimal play can give a player the true advantage with craps.

Strange dice and stranger throws

To be honest, I find this Dice Influence feud that is on every Craps forum to be very strange, but also very telling.

First, I have an psych degree along side with a Computer studies. However, mostly I can look at situations with a more detached point of view.
People who are chronic losers tend to blame outside of themselves as for the reasons of their problems, and often what they cite as the problem is only an emotionally charged situation that actual has nothing to do with there problems. This is often called projection or transference in the psyco-babble talk

But, sometimes they are right and what they are calling out is indeed the source of the problem.

This is why when someone says, “hey, the casinos use bias dice” one cannot dismiss so readily as a losers mental instability. Those who dismiss a persons claims without proper investigation are, in my humble opinion, more mentally unstable than the person they are judging as unstable.

Logic has to upheld here.

The investigation must first methodologically and exhaustively discount the persons claims. In the case of Bias Dice I first had to ask, “how does one detect bias dice?”

Asking some math guys and other scientist, the answer was to “go record 1,000 rolls and see dice line up with expected odds”. Everyone agreed that 1,000 rolls was sufficient enough of a sample to make a conclusion with.

So, I recorded 1,000 rolls of a casino with suspected bias dice. I recorded separate charts for the types of dice (dark red dice or frosty red dice) since this particular casino only used the two types.

With the results in, the data clearly pointed to that the dice where indeed biased. The dark red dice had an SRR (sevens-to-rolls-ratio) of 5.9 (the standard is 6.1) and outside rolls far exceeded the expected odds where as the 5 and 9 far under performed for what they should have been. Thus I labeled these dice as “crappy dice” since far more craps rolled with them than normal.

The second set of dice I recorded was the frosty red dice. These dice have and SRR of 5.1 with the six and nine exceeding expectation, and the seven way overshooting its expected odds as well. I ended up calling these “ice dice” due to the sevens they would produce.

My second means of Investigating these dice was to send them down to a Las Vegas expert who had the tools to measure the dice. It was found that the dice where 20 mm in size, interesting since the standard dice in Las Vegas run 19 mm. The dice where also greatly imbalanced with a heavy six face and once of the dice I sent of the same serial number had a heavy one face.

Lastly, I asked the a dealer who I have earned their trust about the dice and they admitted that the dice tend to ‘run cool’ and that the casino knows this about the dice.

With all that, I felt I had enough qualified logic and probability to deem that the casino uses bias dice.

What shocked me the most was that the so called ‘Dice gurus’ out there totally refused to acknowledge that bias dice exist, and became so irrational in the denials of such dice as to banish me from their boards, to ridicule me in public and to make it clear to those who wish to be in their community that if they even think that bias dice exist that they too will be banished.

My only intent to post my results about my dice studies was to warn the players that such dice are out there.

I did not imply that all dice used at all casinos where biased, I had no proof of that. But what I did say was that “it is possible’ that some lower end casinos might use them, or that unregulated casinos might use them (such as a few notorious Mexican Casinos do, as well as some State Side Indian Reservations casinos).

However, the dice gurus out there simply choose to label me as a Heretic, all for reasons I could only suspect to protect their business interest of selling dice seminars to hopeful and aspiring gamblers. Yes, the skill of Dice Influence.
Does Dice Influence work?
This is the idea that setting the dice so that there are only two ways to make a seven, tossing dice that spin on-axis, a slight backspin toss, that will hit the table then the diamond back wall and stay on axis will avoid the seven.

All that the shooter needs to do is achieve an SRR (sevens-to-rolls-ratio) of 6.5 to gain a 4% edge over the house. In craps, that 4% is huge a difference of winning a few hundred to winning a few thousand.

But…. can it be done?

After my own study and practice of this technique I have concluded that the Diamond back wall essentially destroys any “on-axis” toss that may have existed up and until a hit on the back wall. Shooters who claim success with an On-axis toss do so with short throws, or those that only strike the bottom lip of the back wall and not the diamonds themselves. Many casinos will quickly call out a shooter who shoots like that, and will take away their shooting privileges if they continue. Not much of an advantage there if you are not allowed to shoot.

There is also the high Lob the shooter can use where the dice simply strike right next to the back wall with a downward force and the energy of the dice is absorbed in the table, where then the dice only glance off the backwall then down to rest.  Casinos counter this with a ‘No Lobbing” rule or saying that the dice cannot be any higher than the box persons eyes.

Some dice gurus claim that the backwall is not an issue, that the dice will strike the backwall diamonds uniformly and behave as if it was a straight smooth wall. I found that with a 7-diamond back wall, a tighter formation of diamonds, that the dice would strike in a similar fashion and could retain the on-axis formation they had, but not so with the 5-diamond back wall. Furthermore, the materials of the backwall, as to how firm it is, would greatly impact the dice where as a firm backwall would reflect a lot of energy back in to the dice, thus launching them in random directions and further back to the center of the table, where as a softer backwall would absorb the energy of the dice causing them to fall and die aright at the backwall.

This lead me to understand that to be effective with DI you are essentially shopping backwalls.

Other factors such as table surface bounciness and table length significantly impacted the dice ability to retain its on-axis momentum.

Other issues as your own fatigue, state of mind, state of the environment you are playing in, table crowd, and if the casino is giving you heat or not… all come in as factors to the success or not of ones ability to toss the dice and keep them on-axis.

Lastly, the balance of the dice is critical. Unbalanced dice will tend to fly apart and rotate off-axis while in the air. When that happens, there is little a shooter can do other than find a different table that uses different dice.

My conclusion is that Dice Influence is improbable to successfully implement in the long run to have any meaningful impact on anyone bankroll. Finding a table that meets the requirements is about as rare as finding a six-deck .28 blackjack game with 90% penetration and no heat.

I do think that an avid player who has the time to scout and test tables may find a few tables out there in Las Vegas where the way they toss will have some effect with. Will they have the advantage? This is very hard to say unless someone was honestly tracking their rolls. From what I have read where people have done this the highest SRR recorded for an in-casino rolling was 6.1, and that not enough to gain the advantage but enough to pull the house edge down to zero.

All in all, dice setting and tossing is fun. It tends to show people at the table that you have put time to develop your craps skills, and that you have care for the game. It is in my opinion a worthy thing to learn, if just only for the elegance of the toss.

 

Three days in a casino

I just spent 3 days, the holiday weekend living at an Indian Casino.  Mostly I just wanted to test myself to see if I got what it takes to be a serious gambler.

I went to Spirit Mountain Hotel and Casino, an Indian Casino in Oregon, on Thursday afternoon the 2rd of July.  The first thing I did was check in with the casino host who looked over my previous play and gave me Thursday and Friday for free.  As for July 4th, she said that I need to check in to see if my play rates enough for a Saturday free stay.

My main goal was to see if I had the stamina and discipline to make 10K in points a day.  I intended to do this by playing Craps and Video poker, the two games with the lowest house edge in the casino.

Now my craps play is only to the lowest house edge bets, and only on players who can win.  What is this?  I only bet on myself when I shoot the dice, and those who prove to me that they can make a pass line win.

Bets and play is this:

– Place 6 and 8 and passline with 1x odds.  (only play on self or winners)
– Progress bets by half on a win.
– Parlay Passline Come-out wins.
With this low ball method of play the house only gets a .6% house edge.

Now my own craps shooting I think is nothing special, though I did have some great rolls and many who profited from my rolls later found me elsewhere in the casino to comment on my ‘dice skills’ as to how I roll the diced.  However, I did have quite some short rolls as well that they did not see, and I wonder if they did if they think I had dice skills or just got lucky.

Anyway, my overall profit from my craps play over the 3 days was around $400.

Now with Video Poker I only focused on two game types: Deuces Wild and Jacks or Better.  The other games like Double Double Bonus Poker simply had two low of a return rate for the high variance.  Other high variance games like Ultimate X, Super Times Pay, 50/100 hand and so on all had low pay tables that just made it not worth playing.

So, Deuces Wild DW44 9/15 (98.91%) was my first choice.  This is a mid-range variance game (25.8) compared to Double Double Bonus Poker (41.9) and Jacks or Better (19.5).  I have trained at home for this pay table with the Video Poker for Winners software and mastered the strategy.

When I was tired of Deuces Wild I play craps or switch to Jacks or Better 9/5 (98.4).

My results with Deuces Wild where far better than my results with JOB 9/5 @ 98.4%.  I ended up $500 ahead due to a four times getting 4-deuces, but loosing $500 playing JOB, No royal flush this trip.  I surmised that 9/5 JOB is just enough of a house edge to pull you under in the long run, and that playing this without a good point multiplier to offset loses is probably not worth it in the long run.

However I did find out after talking to the casino host that I racked up over 10,000 points on Saturday and logged 10 hours of play. Wow, I can do it!  Many of the long hours where playing JOB and Deuces and that is where the majority of the points came from.
Now you think I was a winner for the weekend, well here is the second part of the story.

On Friday I decided to take a half day trip to Chinook Winds, a casino a half hour away on the Oregon Coast.  I played Craps there and lost $100.  They have a bouncy 14’ table where the dice would bounce off the table about every 3rd roll.  Seemed we could not get a hand going, and when switching to the Don’ts for a cold table play seemed that the seven would roll on the coming out roll far too often.  I suspected that the dice may be unbalanced, but again I don’t know. Could just be a run of bad luck.

As for video poker there, they have a 9/6 video poker but the Royal Flush is 2500 so that is 98.8% return rate. Not bad for an Indian Casino, but that was not the problem.  The machines in general ran cold.  I played for an hour and lost $600!  First I played 3 line Ultimate X JOB @ the 25 cents level with the 8/5 tables and lost $300 in about 20 minutes. I mean I it was so cold that there were few jacks or better, but the majority of hands where nothings and losers.  Well I told myself that Ultimate X is a high volatility game and one where you can lose or win big.

I then went to play Spin Poker at the 10 cents level with the 9/6/2500 pay tables.  I have had good success with spin poker in the past so I figured that I play it here.  I lost another $300 in 40 minutes and seeing much of the same nothing hands as I saw with Ultimate X, a lot of nothing losing hands.

Now, I sat there for a bit stunned, shocked and thinking that the universe took a steaming dump on me and I simply had amazingly bad luck… but then I heard another guy cry out, “what the hell” and sure enough he was at a same type of machine on my row.  “Damn thing just stole my money” he muttered and walked off.  Then the guy next me to me who was playing 5 cents Ultimate X asked me “Do you think that the Indians rigged the machines?”  I answered, “I don’t know.  I mean they are IGT machines so it is likely they are buying the software loads from IGT.  It’s it possible that they machines are dealing bad hands?  Perhaps, but then I really don’t know.  It is an Indian Casino, so who knows.”  The machines where the slant top style, rather beaten up and used looking.  Some of the buttons looked like they were salvaged from other styles of machines and some of the screens where clearly not the original screens.  I guess if the casino out right owns the machines they then could do as they please to them.  There is no gaming commission in Oregon and there are no Laws about how the casinos are to operate.  Each Casino has its own in house gaming commission that from what I can discern is only in name only, but does no actual enforcement, compliance checking or investigation.  So, could the casino rigged the game?  I simply will never know.

The guy who asked me the question seemed to think the Indians have done something, and he was way down by what he told me. But he continued to play never the less and I asked why play then? “Oh, I am waiting for my wife.  She is playing slots”.

I did not want to leave the casino as a total dejected loser, so I went to the pit boss and asked for a food comp and he was like, “Well…how much are you looking for?” I don’t know I said, perhaps enough for a burger?  So he gives a $10 coupon that I take to the deli and order a burger.  The counter gal was nice enough to help me spend the remaining money on cookies and candy.

I ate the burger thinking this is an expensive burger, and they still put onions on it even after I asked for no onions.

Actually, I was never so happy to see Spirit Mountain after that disastrous casino run.  Not that Spirit Mountain is a good casino, they are as tight as any Indian Casino, however I just never had an ass kicking like what I got at Chinook Winds at Spirit Mountain.

On my last day I went back to chat with the host on duty about my play and stats.  About a minute in to our conversation he simply leans back in his chair and abruptly cuts off the idle conversation we were having and says, “So, then what then do you want?”  I stated I was only interested in my play level and what I achieved over the weekend.  He then looks at me, clearly sizing me up by my play level and win/loss record. He refused to let me look at the screen too that he was looking at

“Look, we don’t offer much here.  We are not like Las Vegas where there is a lot of competition for players”.  He went on to say that I should take my play there because I would find better comps and be happier.

I thanked him for his time and was wondering why exactly did he say that.  Then I ran in to Whitten, an elderly player who I consider savvy and told him what happened.

“Oh, yeah this place has lost a lot of good players to Las Vegas.  Brian and Vince for example.  They played here for years and now they play only in Las Vegas. And, Jimmy your pal now lives in Las Vegas that is why we don’t see him anymore.”  Whitten when on about how these Indian casinos really don’t want good gamblers, they are only interested in the slot players.  I also figured the host simply was trying to do me a favor, to help  me maximize my play an comps and not feel cheated by playing at a casino where very little will be given to me for my play.

So, next casino trip – Las Vegas!

Gallery of winning video poker hands

 

Driving for Uber

Recently, as of November of last year, I have been driving as an ‘Uber driver’ for part time work and extra cash.

This is how it works:

  • Using my own vehicle,
  • an Uber app on my phone,
  • I work when I want to work
  • No routes or driving around

Basically, what happens is when someone wants a ride they use the uber app to send a signal.  That signal then goes to the closest driver, and if they accept then they are locked in to that person till released.

What I do is is turn on the app and login as available when I am at home.  I live in a part of town that is close enough to where there is a lot of rider activity so it works well for me.  Once I am out and have completed a ride, I quickly can get another ride so I just stay out till I feel done or am tired of driving.

How much am I making?  $150 a night mostly.  Not bad, right.  Here is proof:

How I made $150 in just one night driving Uber
How I made $150 in just one night driving Uber

Uber is looking for drivers and if you have a 4-door car that is under 10 years old,  current registration and your name on the insurance then you can drive too.  Click here to apply to drive

Adventures, ideas, thoughts and random things